What Predicts Divorce and How to Divorce Proof Your Marriage (According to Research by John Gottman) 

This article discusses John Gottman research where he studied happily married couples for many years and how he can predict divorce.  He offers seven principles to divorce proof your marriage.

What Predicts Divorce

1.  Harsh startup of discussion of a disagreement

• When the discussion starts up with criticism and/or sarcasm, a form of contempt.  The discussion has begun with a harsh start up. 

• Statistics from this research tell us that 96% of the time you can predict the outcome of a conversation based on the first three minutes of a fifteen-minute interaction.

2.  The Four Horseman of the Apocalypse - criticism, contempt, defensiveness and stonewalling

• Criticism: Criticisms and complaints are two different things.  A complaint only addresses a specific action or behaviour.  A criticism is more global.  It adds on some negative words about your partner's character and personality.  To turn any complaint into a criticism, just add "What's wrong with you?"

• Contempt: Sarcasm, cynicism, name-calling, eye rolling, sneering, mockery and hostile humour are all forms of contempt.  Contempt conveys disgust.  Belligerence is a close cousin to contempt.  It is a form of aggressive anger because it contains a threat or provocation.

• Defensiveness: Defensiveness is really a way of blaming your partner, which is saying in effect "The problem isn't me it's you."

• Stonewalling: Harsh start up with criticism and contempt leads to defensiveness, which leads to more contempt and more defensiveness.  Eventually one partner tunes out.  This is stonewalling.

Stonewalling is the result of flooding, a physical reaction including increased heart rate,        hormonal changes which include the secretion of adrenalin, which kicks in the flight/fight response and increased blood pressure.

The physical sensation of feeling flooded  make it virtually impossible to have a productive, problem-solving discussion.  All you can think about is how to protect yourself from the turbulence your spouse's onslaught causes.  The way to do that is to disengage emotionally from the relationship.

In 85% of marriages, the stonewaller is the husbane.  Gottman's research indicates that the male cardiovascular system is more reactive than the female's and slower to recover from stress.  Since maritial confrontation that activates vigilance takes a greater physical toll on the male, it's no surprise that men are more likely than women to attempt to avoid confrontation.

3.  Failed Repair Attempts

Repair attempts are efforts the couple make that prevents negativity from escalating out of control. For example, "Let's take a break" or "I need to calm down."

The failure of repair attempts is a primary factor for unhappy relationships.  The presence of the four horseman by them selves predict divorce with a 82% accuracy.  However, when you add in the failed repair attempts, the accuracy climbs into the 90% plus.

4.   Pervasive Negative Thoughts About The Relationship

 When a relationship gets consumed in negativity, it's not only the present that gets painted in a negative light, the past often gets re-written in a negative light also.

Signs That The Relationship End is Near

The death knell of a relationship is signelled by four final stages

1.  You see your marital problems as severe.

2.  Talking things over seems useless.  You try to solve problems on your own.

3.  You start leading parallel lives.

4.  Loneliness sets in.

Divorcing-Proofing Your Relationship

The key to reviving or divorce proofing a relationship is not in how you handle disagreements but in how you are with each other when you are not fighting.  The Seven Principles will guide you in coping with conflict, as well as strengthen the friendship that is at the heart of any marriage.

Principle 1: Enhance Your Love Maps

• Emotionally intelligent couples are intimately familiar with each other's world.  They have rich detailed 'love maps' of each other.

Principle 2: Nurture Your Fondness and Admiration

• The best test of whether a couple still has a functioning fondness and admiration system is couples who put a positive spin on their marriage's history.  These couples are likely to have a happy future as well.

• Reminding yourself of your spouse's positive qualities can prevent a happy marriage deteriorating.  The simple reason is that fondness and admiration are antidotes for contempt.

• Simply thinking and talking about positive qualities can exhume positive feelings that have long been buried.

Principle 3: Turn Towards Each Other Instead of Away

• In marriage people periodically make "bids" for their partner's attention, affection, humour, or support.  People either turn towards one another after these bids or they turn away.

• Couples who characteristically turn towards one another are putting money in the bank.  They are building up emotional savings that can act as a cushion when times get rough.

• The stress reducing conversation "Reunite At The End Of The Day And Talk About It" seems to be the most effective in topping up the emotional bank account.  On a typical day, spend twenty to thirty minutes on this conversation.  Talk about anything outside the marriage.  Use the active listening technique.  This technique is okay to use when not airing gripes about each other.

1. Take turns.
2. Don't give unsolicited advice.
3. Show genuine interest.
4. Communicate you understand.
5. Take your spouse's side.
6. Express a "we against others" attitude.
7. Express affection.
8. Validate emotions.

• Once your marriage is set at a more positive level it will be harder to knock it off course.

Principle 4: Let Your Partner Influence You

• Gottman found that men who allow their wives to influence them have happier marriages, and are less likely to divorce than men who resist their wives' influence.

• Statistically speaking, when a man is not willing to share power with his partner, there is an 81% chance that the marriage will self-destruct.

• Wives generally tend to let their husbands influence their decision-making, even in unstable marriages.

• The research found that the happiest, most stable marriages were those where the husband treated the wife with respect and did not resist power sharing and decision making with her.

• In analysing the data Gottman found significant gender differences when an area of conflict was discussed.  Although the wives would sometimes express anger or other negative emotions towards their husbands, they rarely responded to their husbands by increasing the negativity.

• But 65% of the males respondents escalated their wives' negativity.  They did this in a very specific way by trotting out one of the four horsemen (criticism, contempt, defensiveness, or stonewalling).

• If the wife of one of these men said "You're not listening to me!" the husband would either ignore her (stone wall), be defensive ("Yes, I am!"), or be contemptuous ("Why waste my time?").

• Uning one of the four horsemen to escalate a conflict is a sign that a man is resisting a wife's influence.

• More than 80% of the time it's the wife who brings up marital issues, while the husband tries to avoid discussing them.  This is true in happy marriages as well as unhappy.

 Principle 5: Solve Your Solvable Problems

• Solvable problems are situational and they don't reverberate into other areas of their lives.

• The basis for coping with either kind of problem is the same, communicating basic acceptance of your partner's personality.

• Human nature dictates that is is virtually impossible to accept advice from someone unless you feel that person understands you.

• If either or both of you feel judged, misunderstood, or rejected by the other, you will not be able to manage the problems in your marriage.

• In order to improve a marriage, we need to feel accepted by our spouse.

The steps for solving solvable problems are:

1.  Soften your startup.

• To ensure a soft startup:

• Complain but don't blame.

• Make statements that start with "I" instead of "You".

• Describe what is happening, don't evaluate or judge.

• Be clear.  Instead of "Would you look after the baby?"  "Please change Paula's nappy and give her a bottle."

• Be polite.  Use "please", and "I would appreciate it if..."

• Be appreciative.  Instead of "You never spend time with me anymore," say "Remember how we used to go out every Saturday night?"  I really loved that.  "Let's start doing that again"

• Don't store things up.

2.  Learn to make and receive repair attempts.

3.  Monitor your physiology during tense discussions for signs of flooding.

Take steps to soothe yourself and each other.  You need at least 20 minutes for the body to calm down.  If your heart rate exceeds 100 beats per minute you won't be able to hear what your spouse is trying to tell you no matter how hard you try.

4.  Compromise. 

The cornerstone of compromise is the fourth principle of marriage, accepting influence.  You don't have to agree with everything your spouse says or believes, but you have to be honestly open to considering his or her position.

5.  Be tolerant of each other's faults. 

Conflict resolution is not about one person changing.  It's about negotiating, finding common ground and ways you can accomodate each other. 

These steps amount to having good manners, treating your spouse to the same respect you would give to friends.

Principle 6: Overcoming Gridlock of Perpetual Problems

Perpetual problems: Unfortunately 69% of maritial problems fall into this category.

Examples of perpetual problems are:

1. Meg wants to have a baby, but Donald says he's not ready yet, and doesn't know if he ever will be.
2. Walter wants sex more frequently than Dana.
3. Tony wants to raise his children as Catholics.  Jessica is Jewish and wants their children to follow her faith.
4. Angie thinks Ron is too critical of their son.  But Ron thinks he has the right approach.  Their son has to be taught the correct way to do things.

The signs of being grid locked over a perpetual problem are:

• The conflict makes you feel rejected by your partner.

• You keep talking about it but make no headway.

• You become entrenched in your positions and are unwilling to budge.

• When you discuss the subject, you feel more frustrated and hurt.

• Your conversations about the problem are devoid of humour, amusement, or affection.

• Eventually you disengage from each other emotionally.

• The way out of gridlock is to be able to uncover and share with each other the significant personal dreams you have for your life.

• In other words, the endless arguement symbolises some profound difference between you that  needs to be addressed before you can put the problem in its place.

• If you are hopelessly grid locked over a problem you just can't solve, the goal is not to solve the problem, but rather to move from gridlock to dialogue.

• Gridlock is a sign that you have dreams for your life that aren't being addressed or respected by each other.

• Our deepest dreams are rooted in childhood.  You may long to re-create some of your warmest memories of family life from your youth, or feel the psychological need to distance yourself from painful childhood memories by not duplicating the same activities. 

Steps to overcoming gridlock:

1.  Become a dream detective.
2. Work on gridlocked issues by writing an explanation of the issue, the story of the hidden dreams, where the dreams come from and why they are important.
3. Then talk about the issue, using speaker, listener techniques.  Each gets 15 minutes as speaker and 15 minutes as the listener.  Don't try to solve the problem.  Simply seek for understanding.
4. If you can, tell your partner you support his or her dream.
5. Sooth each other.
6. End the gridlock - understanding that the purpose is not to solve the conflict.  The goal is to try to remove the hurt so the problem stops being a source of great pain.

Principle 7: Create Shared Meaning

• A critical goal of any marriage is to create an atmosphere that encourages each person to talk honestly about his or her convictions.
• The more shared meaning you can find, the deeper, richer, and more rewarding your relationship will be.
• Happily married couples only devote an additional five hours per week to their marriages. 

The magic five hours focus on:

Partings: 2 minutes per day x 5 days = 10 minutes

Reunions: Stress reducing conversations at the end of the work day - 20 minutes x 5 days = 1 hour 40 minutes.

Admiration and appreciation: 5 minutes x 7 days = 35 minutes.

Affection: 5 minutes x 7 days = 35 minutes.

Weekly date: 2 hours once per week = 2 hours.

Total: Five Hours!

Reference: The Seven Principles for Making Marriage Work by John Gottman